Monday, August 8, 2011

Overnight

Global markets in free fall with SPX down almost 3%, Hong Kong off 7.5% and Korea down 10%.  Gold is continuing its parabolic rise testing 1750 and oil is down another 5% to 78.

I'm expecting the Bernank to suggest additional easing tomorrow, maybe even a statement pre mkt, hours before the official Fed release, if the futures do not bounce.  Any QE3 talk and I'm loading into TBT - many expect the next round of bond purchasing to target the long end of the yield curve.  Why short long dated treasuries on news of quantitative easing?  Because QE is essentially the monetization of US debt, and printing money increases inflationary pressures which will ultimately steepen the yield curve.  It is counter intuitive but worked beautifully after QE2 - investors were basically forced out of risk free treasuries and into riskier assets such as equities and commodities.

Sitting on the sidelines for now until I see a substantial move to the upside accompanied by high volume and momentum.  Expecting financials to get hit again tomorrow - should be interesting to see where BAC and C find their next support.  Also going to take a look at the beaten down energy sector for possible value plays.

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